Cold, dry winter could mean bad year for many county crops

By Craig W. Anderson

By January 2011 heavy rains had created a hefty concern about too much water, and now, with November-December 2011 having been dry and cold, farmers and ranchers are worried that the dry weather could extend far into 2012, which would not be good news for San Joaquin County agriculture.

San Joaquin County and the surrounding region have experienced unusually dry weather during the time when rain and snow counts are usually on the rise.

On the positive side, according to Stockton East Water District’s assistant general manager Jeanette Thomas, New Melones Reservoir currently has 1,975,100 acre feet in storage, not a bad number in the midst of a cold and dry winter.

Reservoirs looking good

Pete Lucero, U.S. Bureau of Reclamation spokesman, said the bureau is “very hopeful for a robust winter” that will help maintain the current water levels. He also said the current storage level is more than the lake’s 15 year average of 1.6 million acre feet for this time of year and exceeds the 1.4 million acre feet held in New Melones at the same time last year.

But good reservoir numbers aren’t translating to anything good regarding water supplies as far as cattle ranchers are concerned.


Rangelands suffering

“During dry winters rangelands take a pretty good hit,” said San Joaquin County Agricultural Commissioner Scott Hudson. “In the past we’ve declared rangeland as disaster areas.”

Could the cold, dry winter be pushing rangeland toward drought-like conditions? Kenny Watkins, Linden farmer and rancher and CFBF first vice president thinks that is exactly where the weather’s heading. “Cattle are kicking up dust clouds that follow them in pastureland. It’s all dry, no green or mud anywhere. It’s a serious situation that is becoming more serious with every passing day.”

He said cattlemen are feeding their cattle with hay they’d normally sell and that hay and wheat are suffering a seed shortage.

Also, in cold weather cattle need more forage to keep their metabolism up to speed and without rain that forage is becoming scarcer, Watkins said.


Rain needed

“Hopefully, it will rain … this lack of rain is getting into the back of the minds of farmers now,” said SJFB President Bruce Fry, Lodi area winegrape grower. “We’ve had about two inches of rain so far this year compared to about eight inches last year. Winter crops need water to get going but now those crops are just sitting there.”

Fortunately, “most everything’s irrigated around here and as long as the groundwater and surface water remain available, the crops will be fine,” Hudson said. “But forage crops along with wheat and oats could be in trouble if some rain doesn’t come pretty quickly.”


Soil moisture down

The impact of a dry November has depleted the soil moisture down to three feet, said David Taylor, CEO of Anderson – Barngrover Ranch near Linden, where he grows walnuts and cherries. “It’s important to keep moisture in the ground so there will be no freeze. The Tulare variety walnut in particular is susceptible to ground freeze.”

In addition to beginning irrigation to replenish that water level, it’s not advisable to prune until growers can see how much damage the weather has done to the trees.

Taylor pointed out that “there usually isn’t as much moisture depletion in winter because the trees use less water” but the current dry and cold weather is already testing that theory as farmers are beginning 24 to 36 hours of irrigation to prevent further depletion.

There could be benefits arising from the weather such as receiving plenty of chill days, and, said Hudson, “The cold, dry weather is hard on overwintering insect pests,” but if forage suffers because of insufficient water, bees could be affected adversely by a lack of forage.


Dairy

Cold, dry weather does not present a health problem for dairy cows, said dairy owner Jack Hamm, SJFB first vice president, noting that cows can exercise but, he said, “Feed is one troublesome area. Winter forage could clearly use water and at this point I’m very concerned about hay supplies in the spring. Oats and wheat are really hurting, too.”

Dry farming may require irrigation and if the bad weather continues “there could be real problems in April if there’s no rain which could push the already very high feed prices even higher,” Hamm said. “If we could get three to four inches, we’ll be fine.”

Overall, Hamm explained that the dairy industry will probably be OK over the short term but will suffer – again – over the long term.


A wet January?

Joe Valente, former SJFB president, said, “Typically, if we have a dry December a wet January will follow.”

A wet January, if it happens, would certainly be good news but for winegrape growers. Valente said the cold and dry November and December weather has them “putting water on the vineyard to keep the roots active. However, it’s a challenge for growers using drip irrigation to catch up.”

And if the forecast calls for wind, that’s not good either, because it pulls the moisture from the vines. About the weather, Valente said, “We’re very concerned as an industry.”


Extra costs

The dry, cold weather will certainly have an economic impact on the county’s ag producers because early irrigation has started which means additional costs very early in 2012; already high feed costs will surely increase; and some trees and limbs and other crops could be lost to the cold.

Fry commented on the fickleness of agriculture and weather, “One year we have water, the next year we don’t,” and the La Nina years “seem to bring cold and dry weather.”

Today’s farmers and ranchers must be prepared for whatever weather is hurled at them but, Hudson said, “At this point in time it’s wait and watch and hope the rain will come. And soon.”